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[sevenlayermuddle]

I started to think about writing a short program to simulate the problem.  It would generate random sequences, accumulating do/don’t switch outcomes over numerous iterations.   Pondering the code paths led me to visualise the problem in a different way….

If the contestant does not switch then winning the car depends upon his initial choice, which was 1/3.

If the contestant does switch, then he gets the opposite of what he initially chose - a goat or a car.   Since the probability that he initially chose a goat was 2/3, the odds of winning the car thus becomes 2/3.

I’ve not trawled through the various links to see if any have discussed (or trashed) my latest reasoning, but I’ve been pondering it for an hour or two without changing my mind, and thought it worth sharing.   

[craigski]

If the contestant flips a coin (heads or tails) to choose if he switches, heads he switches, tails he doesn't,  what is probability he wins the car?

If the contestant flips a coin (heads or tails) head is left door, tails is right door, what is the probability he wins the car?

[sevenlayermuddle]

If the contestant flips a coin (heads or tails) to choose if he switches, heads he switches, tails he doesn't,  what is probability he wins the car?

If the contestant flips a coin (heads or tails) head is left door, tails is right door, what is the probability he wins the car?

IF we accept that switching yields a 2/3 chance vs 1/3 by not switching, then I’d say that tossing a coin (either scenario) to decide whether to switch yields the average of 1/3 and 2/3, which is 1/2.

[sevenlayermuddle]

Monty Hall has been running for well over a week, it might be time to move on.

May I suggest that Kitz deserves the honour of setting next puzzle, in recognition for huge effort expended on analysing this one?

[4candles]

Seconded

[toulouse]

Thirded

[kitz]

It certainly got me thinking and I probably may continue to ponder from time to time.   
So moving on I'll post a riddle this time.

When you have three you have three.
When you have two you have two.
When you have one you have none?
What is it?

[4candles]

Linked ring in a chain?

[kitz]

Good answer but not the solution I'm looking for.

[kitz]

Should I give you a clue?
Would you like multiple answers to select from?

[sevenlayermuddle]

I’m afraid I have a confession on this one.   I had no ideas and ready to give up and then late last evening, in a moment of drunken weakness, I sought assistance from Google.   

I’m pretty sure I now know the answer but, having cheated big time, I can’t possibly offer it as my answer.

Neat riddle though, assuming my cheating was right.

[kitz]

I'd have classed it as your typical xmas cracker riddle as I didn't think it was hard, but I guess its one of those if you know, then you know.
My own answer wasn't exactly the same as the given solution but near enough considering both words can mean the same thing.
I thought someone would have got it. I guess my rather cryptic clue didn't help either.  
I'll give it another day now that the cat is out of the bag that my last post was a clue not a question.

[4candles]

  , I think.

Choices?

[kitz]

YAY.
Well done
Your turn

[4candles]

Mentioning Christmas crackers helped!

OK, onward and upward...

You're alone in a dark room, with only one match and an oil lamp, a paraffin lamp and a candle.

Which do you light first?