Still important I think to take the numbers at face value, and not to focus unduly on the extremes.
Neil Ferguson, original architect of UK (and many other) lockdowns, now in the dog’s house for breaching lockdown rules himself by seeing a lady friend, is often ridiculed for his BSE predictions in 2002. The story goes that he predicted that up to 50,000 may die from BSE, whereas less than 200 actually died, his prediction being made to look ridiculous. Actually though, as far as I can ascertain, he actually predicted between 50 and 50,000 deaths so, at 170 odd, the outcome was entirely within the range of his predictions.
Not an expert on BSE, Covid-19, nor anything similar, happy to be challenged on any of this.