This is one heck of a puzzle with many mathematicians trying to prove or disprove the theory. I'm not steadfast in either camp. I can in part believe it might be more advantageous, it's just that I haven't seen an explanation yet that has fully managed to convince me. I dont for one minute think Im going to be able to come up with a solution that no-one else before has. There's a lot of highly educated mathematical and statisticians who have worked on this. I just want to try and understand how they got there.
Whilst I haven't spent long periods of time looking at it, I do keep going back to it when I think I have a clear head, but then give in about 5 mins later. I'm not yet prepared to say Ive exhausted all arguments, I've not even fully read the wiki article yet.... Ive skimmed over it but some of it seems to be too deep.
>>such as quoting something called Bayes theorem,
I saw that and my brain exploded
Ive looked at several sites but they seems to have answers that I feel have missed some questions in my own head. There was a site where I clicked on the door so many times.. but tbh I wasnt convinced by that either - not if the doors were coded with an amount that would favour a switch.
>> isn’t it the case that the event in the list is that “Monty revealed a goat”, rather than “Monty opened some specific door”?
Yes. There's something in the wiki article that does account for it, but says it makes the odds 1/6.... so its there that I am until I brave spending some more time on it
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I tried a different method, but still stalled when it comes to Monty having a choice of 2 doors if the contestant has selected the door with the car behind. At least wikipedia makes mention of this statistic, a lot of sites dont. So Im at the stage of trying to convince myself that Monty's choice is 1/6th at this point.