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[Alex Atkin UK]

Through things like https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/informationforhouseholdsandindividuals/householdandindividualsurveys/covid19infectionsurvey which give an idea of how widespread infections are.

That doesn't solve the problem that if people can't be bothered to be tested, there will be no record.  Same way I don't tell my GP if I get a Cold or Flu (so it always kinda baffles me where the flu figures come from).

The instant it becomes "we'll just have to live with it", it becomes mostly guesswork.