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Author Topic: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)  (Read 35102 times)

sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #570 on: July 09, 2020, 11:08:21 AM »

you might want to read up on that, because your worries are somwewhat misguided.
https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2020/06/all-social-distancing-weakening-our-immune-systems

Actually, I think you'll find that professional opinions vary.

Here's another professional opinion.  Basically confirms (if I understand the gist of it) the author believes exposure to common cold coronavirus may affect outcome from Covid-19.  But...  he also speculates that even if an immune system primed by a common cold coronavirus might affect Covid-19, we shouldn't just assume the effect will be a good one.  It's also possible that it might make matters worse...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z

Anyway, I'm the first to admit that whilst I find all the science interesting, I'm not remotely qualified to claim that I understand much of it. :blush:
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #571 on: July 09, 2020, 10:26:46 PM »

I took a big ‘first step’ today, donned a mask and ventured into Waitrose very briefly, to buy a gift.  First visit to any shop, since early March.

I was disappointed to find hardly anybody else was masked. :(

Can’t help thinking the staff could be setting a better example.  I’d not expect the checkout staff to wear masks as wearing them for any length of time is fatiguing and anyway, they have a (half hearted) screen to protect them.  But for the staff out mingling on the floor, would wearing masks be a big ask?   It might just get the message across, that there’s a nasty virus about.

I was also a bit disappointed to see no change to the pay & display car park machines, unavoidable pushing of potentially manky buttons, no contactless option.

Back to Tesco home deliveries methinks (Tesco being only one that’s reliable around here).
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #572 on: July 14, 2020, 08:07:19 AM »

New UK academic report out, on a worst case scenario for winter.  Includes discussion of recent meanderings on this thread, such as interaction with seasonal flu and other winter illnesses.

https://acmedsci.ac.uk/file-download/51353957

80 pages long I’m afraid, but worth a skim imho.

It’ll no doubt lead to all sorts of apocalyptic headlines in trashy media, guess we’d better brace ourselves for that. :'(
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digbey

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #573 on: July 14, 2020, 11:35:17 AM »

It’ll no doubt lead to all sorts of apocalyptic headlines in trashy media, guess we’d better brace ourselves for that. :'(
Is this what you mean?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53392148
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #574 on: July 14, 2020, 11:42:22 AM »

Is this what you mean?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53392148

Not really, I wouldn’t call that apocalyptic?
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chenks

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #575 on: July 14, 2020, 11:52:16 AM »

the main problem at the moment is that a lot of people think that the problem is over now, and normal life is back.
problem is that it defintely isn't. there is never going to be a "back to normal" unless a vaccine is found and used like we have with measles/mumps etc.
we have a "new normal" now and people need to change quickly.

just wait for the anti-vaccers to pop their head up over the trenches!

people doing the mad dash to get to pubs, i shake my head in disbelief. however if every pub was to close and never re-open again then i'd be perfectly happy.
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niemand

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #576 on: July 14, 2020, 12:11:20 PM »

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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #577 on: July 14, 2020, 12:31:01 PM »

In terms of media coverage of the winter report, I’d like to nominate this one as a good example.  Factual and restrained, in Imperial’s own news letter.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/199693/prepare-winter-covid-19-peak-warn-infectious/

Starts of with a summary of the report and a description of the authors, rather than blasting out big numbers in bold letters.   The numbers are stated towards the end of the article, but only after the reader has absorbed the context in which these numbers are being presented.

For those who may succumb to headlines that scream out big numbers such as  “up to 120,000 may die”, the 120,000 is not an “up to”, as far as I can see it is an actual estimate, stated as within a range of uncertainty.  The “up to” would be 251,000 as that is the upper bound on their range, 24,500 being the lower bound.   Emphasise again, these numbers are modelling a worst case scenario, it’s not a forecast, nobody is saying they think it will happen.   It also includes lower numbers, for better than worst-case scenarios.
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chenks

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #578 on: July 14, 2020, 12:51:56 PM »

problem is, with the way people are currently acting then who can expect anything other than a "worst case scenario".
lockdowns are are already be re-introduce in various places around the world, although some are city-widerather than country-wide - Melbourne being an example.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #579 on: July 14, 2020, 01:27:12 PM »

Still important I think to take the numbers at face value, and not to focus unduly on the extremes.

Neil Ferguson, original architect of UK (and many other) lockdowns, now in the dog’s house for breaching lockdown rules himself by seeing a lady friend, is often ridiculed for his BSE predictions in 2002.  The story goes that he predicted that up to 50,000 may die from BSE, whereas less than 200 actually died, his prediction being made to look ridiculous.  Actually though, as far as I can ascertain, he actually predicted between 50 and 50,000 deaths so, at 170 odd, the outcome was entirely within the range of his predictions.

Not an expert on BSE, Covid-19, nor anything similar, happy to be challenged on any of this. :)
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 01:50:49 PM by sevenlayermuddle »
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chenks

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #580 on: July 14, 2020, 01:33:07 PM »

difference is that BSE (or rather vCJD as only cattle can have BSE) isn't contagious. you had to eat the infected meat to get it vCJD.
whis is why the "cure" was to burn all the affected cattle.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #581 on: July 14, 2020, 01:45:39 PM »

I was just making the point that when the BSE model predicted 50-50,000 we shouldn’t have focused solely on the 50,000.  The end result for that model turned out to be nearer 50, just as the model had predicted.
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j0hn

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #582 on: July 14, 2020, 02:43:22 PM »

I was just making the point that when the BSE model predicted 50-50,000 we shouldn’t have focused solely on the 50,000.  The end result for that model turned out to be nearer 50, just as the model had predicted.

Predicting between 50-50,000 deaths and the result being 170 isn't an accurate prediction imo.
That's a huge range and the outcome is at the very bottom of that range.
Nothing to brag that the outcome was in that predicted range.

I've created a model that predicts between 1 and 1 billion deaths from COVID19.

Am I an expert now?
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #583 on: July 14, 2020, 04:28:41 PM »

Am I an expert now?

I'm sure you won't be offended if we say 'no'.  You would be expected to explain your methods, and explain where the uncertainty comes from, it's not just a made-up number.

There was a time (long ago) when I knew how to approach such problems in relation to electronic circuitry, looking at component tolerances, thermal stability etc, MTBF etc, within ranges of probability.

I would not have any idea where to begin, when looking at the uncertainties of pandemic modelling.  But instinctively, I am unsurprised that the uncertainty is substantial, they are after all modelling something based on assumptions that leave massive scope for errors.
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digbey

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #584 on: July 14, 2020, 04:52:38 PM »

..., he actually predicted between 50 and 50,000 deaths so, at 170 odd, the outcome was entirely within the range of his predictions.

His prediction was actually wider at 63-136,00. Not really any more use for planning than a sheer guess.

https://www.nature.com/articles/35020688?proof=trueMay
« Last Edit: July 14, 2020, 05:11:21 PM by digbey »
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