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Author Topic: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)  (Read 35157 times)

sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #510 on: June 20, 2020, 01:04:59 AM »

The virus was definitely in Spain in mid-December. Found in sewage samples collected in a few places there.

Thriva should have an antibody test ready to go soon.

There have been at least 1,200 separate arrivals of the virus to the UK. It's extremely likely that it was in the UK by mid-January and potentially even saw in the new year here.

We’re very honoured to have you on board the forum. 

Other people state mere opinions, and/or cite sources.  But you actually have the facts, and are willing to share them.

It must be wonderful to be CarlIT.
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Ronski

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #511 on: June 20, 2020, 09:09:15 AM »

My wife, who works at the local hospital had an antibody test on Monday, the result came back positive.

There was one weekend, when she had a bad headache, and felt clammy, but her temperature was fine, we're pretty sure this was early on prior to staff testing, but can't remember when, can't think of any other time she may of had it. She has also had two Covid tests, both of which were negative.

Makes me wonder if I've had it, but I can't currently have an antibody test.
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Ronski

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #512 on: June 20, 2020, 09:13:52 AM »

We’re very honoured to have you on board the forum. 

Other people state mere opinions, and/or cite sources.  But you actually have the facts, and are willing to share them.

It must be wonderful to be CarlIT.

Oh and we're so honoured to have you to  ;)

A simple Google search  ;D

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-virus-italy-december.html

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/italy-had-coronavirus-in-sewage-as-early-as-december-study-says

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It also pointed to a recent Spanish study that found genetic traces in waste water samples collected in mid-January in Barcelona, some 40 days before the first indigenous case was discovered

Yes the above is primarily Italy, perhaps Carl just got muddled or I didn't spend enough time searching for links for you.

Disclaimer for 7LM. I've no idea how reliable the above sources are. I'm also not a scientist, in fact I'm not particularly clever education wise either, especially as I've edited this three four times to make corrections ;D ;)
« Last Edit: June 20, 2020, 09:19:52 AM by Ronski »
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #513 on: June 20, 2020, 10:11:21 AM »

My wife, who works at the local hospital had an antibody test on Monday, the result came back positive.

Now that is interesting.

Fair to remind everybody though that ONS conducts ongoing household surveys, the latest suggesting that only 5.4% (with 95% confidence) have antibodies.   That’s actually slightly lower than their previous estimate, but within the bounds of uncertainty.   Which would actually seem to blow the idea out of the water, that vast numbers of us already had it.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/18june2020

I’m not a statistician, it’s possible I’m misunderstanding the data, happy to be told that is so.  But I’m also happy to believe that ONS is professional in their research and truthful In their data, regardless of public sentiment regarding elected politicians.

Regarding media sites in general... no, there are none that I regard as sources of facts.  Hard to believe, but even our Monthly village newsletter, half the population of Dibley, has published some howling errors over the years. When it happens, I am encouraged to let it pass :D
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #514 on: June 20, 2020, 10:51:57 AM »

Regarding the Italian Waste Water story, all I can find is multiple second hand accounts (Increasing exponentially with each search) of the same story.

An organisation named as Italy’s ‘National Health Institute’ seems to be credited as the source but I have not found the organisation’s website or source publication of the study, and anyway there is no point as I do not speak a word of Italian.   

And until any such data is independently verified,  I don’t have any feeling for how much trust to place in such an Italian public body.  Tales of corruption and blunder in Italian government do seem to emerge with some frequency.   Damn, I probably just lost another 60 million friends. :-[
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digbey

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #515 on: June 20, 2020, 12:19:38 PM »

An organisation named as Italy’s ‘National Health Institute’ seems to be credited as the source but I have not found the organisation’s website or source publication of the study, and anyway there is no point as I do not speak a word of Italian.   

The 'National Health Institute' is 'Istituto Superiore di Sanità' www.iss.it.
Here is the original report. I know it's written by a foreigner but many browsers will translate it for you and you won't need to speak a word of Italian. I don't think I'll bother to find the sources of similar reports of early detection in Spain and France.

https://www.iss.it/comunicati-stampa/-/asset_publisher/fjTKmjJgSgdK/content/cs-n%25C2%25B039-2020-studio-iss-su-acque-di-scarico-a-milano-e-torino-sars-cov-2-presente-gi%25C3%25A0-a-dicembre
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niemand

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #516 on: June 20, 2020, 01:12:07 PM »

I did mean Italy, sorry!

Thriva's test has completed CE certification and they are completing the required specificity and sensitivity trial next week.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #517 on: June 20, 2020, 03:00:15 PM »

I did mean Italy, sorry!

Thriva's test has completed CE certification and they are completing the required specificity and sensitivity trial next week.

The earlier Home DIY tests, that UK purchased in vast numbers and had to ditch as they were so unreliable as to be branded useless, also had CE approval.   Or so I remember, can’t find a link support my recollection.

Sounds like Thriva have hit the same problem as Superdrug though.  The newer lab tests work and are reliable, but results are only reliable if blood sample taken by a qualified person, not diy with a drawing pin and a dab of savlon.

https://thriva.co/tests/coronavirus-antibody-test

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This test is unavailable while further validation is done on finger-prick blood samples. Enter your email, and we’ll let you know when we’re offering this again.

If the Guardian is to believed on this one occasion.....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/english-retailers-told-halt-coronavirus-home-antibody-test-deliveries
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The authorities appear to be questioning whether a home blood sample leads to a result that is as accurate as one taken by a nurse in a clinic.

Edit: struck out my assertion that the flawed tests had CE approval.   Really quite exhaustive searching has failed to find a shred of evidence in to support me.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2020, 03:35:11 PM by sevenlayermuddle »
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chenks

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #518 on: June 23, 2020, 01:28:15 PM »

does anyone else see a flaw here?

The prime minister said: "Our principle is to trust the British public to use their common sense in the full knowledge of the risks, remembering the more we open up, the more vigilant we need to be."

we already have lots of evidence that the "British" public are {censored} morons.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #519 on: June 23, 2020, 01:56:28 PM »

we already have lots of evidence that the "British" public are {censored} morons.

Basically, for the a large part of the UK, agreed.

That said I would hope the modellers, in deciding the guidance to be advised, would include estimates of moronic behaviour.  May not be able to find it again but I Seem to recall that the initial advice of self-isolation for those with symptoms, was based on an assumption that they'd only get around 50% compliance.   But the models suggested 50% isolation, with the other measures, would be enough to achieve the required reduction in transmission.
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tickmike

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #520 on: June 23, 2020, 02:21:25 PM »



The prime minister said: "Our principle is to trust the British public to use their common sense in the full


A lot of 'Jo' public have no Common Sense.

In the Zoo that my daughter works, they opened again last week, she said the majority of the public have Not idea what 'social distancing' means and have No idea what '2 Metre' is, No sense to wash there hands, Do not understand what 'One Way' system/paths are.

With owning a Village shop for a number of years it opened my eyes to what a lot are like.

I think the new 1 Metre rule is too early, the 'R' value has not gone down enough yet.


Anyone buying FFP3 Medical grade Face Masks ? .
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #521 on: June 23, 2020, 03:44:17 PM »

I have a single FFP2 valved respirator, sole survivor of a few that I purchased some years ago, for wood working.  It’s meant to be single use but I have worn it twice during the outbreak when visiting medical establishments, allowing it to ‘quarantine’ for about two months between uses.  It is a reassuringly tight fit and reasonably comfortable, but breathing through it for any length of time is quite exhausting, and communication can be hard too.

I also have some cheaper disposable blue face masks from Boots, look very much like the sort of thing a Dentist might have worn in the old days.  Boots were careful not to advertise them as giving any Covid protection at all to the wearer, they are meant to protect others.   But they arrived in a box that claimed various medical standards.  After researching these standards I arrived at the conclusion the protection they give to the wearer, while far short of a full FFP2/3 respirator,  even without eye protection, is probably better than nothing.
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Alex Atkin UK

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #522 on: June 23, 2020, 11:19:53 PM »

Had to see my GP today, first time out since January.

Face mask is NOT good for Asthma sufferer.  I started off at my normal pace but quickly felt like I was suffocating and had to slow down and eventually stop entirely to catch my breath as my chest was aching.

On the way back I had to walk really really slowly so that I never had to take deep breaths.

I'm really not looking forward to going to the hospital in a few weeks.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #523 on: June 23, 2020, 11:50:00 PM »

Sympathies Alex.   I had childhood Asthma that gradually resolved in adulthood.   I’ve been lucky that it got better, last time I remember a ‘proper’ asthma attack was in 1988.  I still had inhalers on prescription for a long time but the need receded and now pretty much forgotten.

But after wearing that FFP2 for just 10-15 minutes I realised that the discomfort, whilst mild in comparison,  bore recognisable similarities to my long forgotten asthma attacks.  I have no doubt that for an asthma sufferer, masks may be pretty bad. :'(
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Weaver

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #524 on: June 24, 2020, 08:33:19 PM »

My wife just got the news that she will be able to reopen her guest accommodation business. Over four months holiday, lots of gardening and baking. Shame she’s so full of arthritis and generally poorly, it rather hampered what she has been able to do physically during lockdown.
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