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Author Topic: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)  (Read 35484 times)

Weaver

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #465 on: May 16, 2020, 11:31:01 PM »

Answer to tickMike. In a word, "no".  :(

Would be having elaborate separation protocols but it’s still a really bad idea. My wife is diabetic too, which puts her at risk. It’s down to the government forcing us to go back to work even when it isn’t safe or else we starve.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #466 on: May 16, 2020, 11:58:18 PM »

I sympathise Weaver, but the government won’t force anybody to go back to work.  Economic necessity may compel people to choose to return to work, but you can’t blame that on the government.    Govt cannot continue forever to bankroll people who are not working, as that would require an infinite amount of borrowing.

My understanding is that the plan all along was, during the lulls between the multiple waves of infection that we can expect to see, when the statistical risk is low, the government will allow people to go back to work, if they so choose.   When it gets too risky again, people will most probably be told for a while to stop going to work again until that wave passes, and so the cycle will repeat.  The BBC will of course scream that “The Government keeps changing its mind!”, just laugh when that happens.

I personally share your caution.  Both of us here also have several health conditions that significantly increase the statistical risk, even though we don’t qualify as ‘highly vulnerable’.  For that reason we intend to continue quarantining ourselves until the pandemic is over, maybe a year or two, and even during the lulls when govt says we don’t have to do so.   That is our choice, and govt won’t take it away, but we will have to finance that choice out of our own pockets.

« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 12:28:43 AM by sevenlayermuddle »
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j0hn

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #467 on: May 17, 2020, 05:23:40 PM »

I simply smell a rat when the Scottish (and Welsh) governments state that the whole of Scotland(/Wales), based on arbitrary geographic land borders, needs to be treated differently from the rest of the country.

Wouldn't the rat be a big fat blonde rat who lives in Downing Street then?

The United Kingdom (and Great Britain) isn't a country and the border isn't arbitrary.

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all decided to keep the lockdown based on the scientific/medical advise available to them.

Scotland makes its own laws (it always has) and it runs its own healthcare.
Why shouldn't the devolved Nations decide their own lockdown policy?

The infection rate per 100,000 people is considerably lower in Scotland. I trust how the Scottish government is handling things.

I'm in the shielding category and would rather they not juggle health and the economy.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 05:25:47 PM by j0hn »
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #468 on: May 17, 2020, 05:55:25 PM »

Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all decided to keep the lockdown based on the scientific/medical advise available to them.

Whenever I have cited scientific advice in this thread, I have provided a link to an academic source.   I have seen nothing to persuade me, as a layperson,  that Scotland and Wales are acting upon genuine scientific advice, but would be happy to consider a meaningful link to any such source.   

The Scottish government have a long established track record of very obviously adopting policy solely on the basis that it runs contrary to national policy, and especially adopting policy that they think might embarrass the Westminster government.  That may be fair game in normal politics.  All is fair in love war and politics, but it’s not an approach that will help us to fight coronavirus. 

I might be doing Ms Sturgeon a disservice, maybe she really believes Scotland is different, and has the scientific data to uphold that.   But if so, she would have done better to keep her disagreement private, rather than making herself look foolish by publicly criticising her own prime minister.

Northern Ireland may be different.  Viruses definitely won’t respect roadside signs as a boundary to their progress, but they might accept the sea as an impediment.

The debate as to whether Scotland is a country, or a nation, or neither, is an interesting one, to which I’d enthusiastically contribute.  But somewhat off topic.
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g3uiss

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #469 on: May 17, 2020, 09:21:31 PM »

Whenever I have cited scientific advice in this thread, I have provided a link to an academic source.   I have seen nothing to persuade me, as a layperson,  that Scotland and Wales are acting upon genuine scientific advice, but would be happy to consider a meaningful link to any such source.   

The Scottish government have a long established track record of very obviously adopting policy solely on the basis that it runs contrary to national policy, and especially adopting policy that they think might embarrass the Westminster government.  That may be fair game in normal politics.  All is fair in love war and politics, but it’s not an approach that will help us to fight coronavirus. 
It’s all about politics in Scotland. Ms Sturgen sees this as a route to independence not a rioute to public health

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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #470 on: May 17, 2020, 09:59:56 PM »

Today’s death UK toll is reported as 170, the lowest since 24th March.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I don’t think that statistic is as helpful as we might hope as it reflects the deaths reported today, rather than the date they occurred. In worst case scenario, there may have been many more deaths, not yet recorded.     No doubt, the media will miss that point.

Nevertheless, whilst it may not be exactly accurate news, in comparison with same figures this time last week and weeks before,  it’s probably not exactly bad news either. :)
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d2d4j

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #471 on: May 17, 2020, 10:13:03 PM »

Hi

Sorry after every weekend figures are announced, they clearly state figures are wrong due to weekend reporting of figures not upto date ...

Even the graphs shows this which is why they use the 7 day running total for better accuracy

Many thanks

John
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #472 on: May 17, 2020, 11:26:14 PM »

Hi

Sorry after every weekend figures are announced, they clearly state figures are wrong due to weekend reporting of figures not upto date ...

Even the graphs shows this which is why they use the 7 day running total for better accuracy

Many thanks

John

Yes John that too.   But  If we look at date of death rather date of reporting, there should be no ‘weekend distortion’.

Rolling averages are useful too, but are solving a different problem.
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Alex Atkin UK

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #473 on: May 18, 2020, 02:47:24 PM »

Today’s death UK toll is reported as 170, the lowest since 24th March.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I don’t think that statistic is as helpful as we might hope as it reflects the deaths reported today, rather than the date they occurred. In worst case scenario, there may have been many more deaths, not yet recorded.     No doubt, the media will miss that point.

Nevertheless, whilst it may not be exactly accurate news, in comparison with same figures this time last week and weeks before,  it’s probably not exactly bad news either. :)

Plus all that basically tells us is that the lockdown was working, seeing as it can take 14 days to show symptoms and potentially considerably longer before a person dies from it.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #474 on: May 18, 2020, 03:02:51 PM »

Plus all that basically tells us is that the lockdown was working, seeing as it can take 14 days to show symptoms and potentially considerably longer before a person dies from it.

Absolutely. 

With so many hundreds of thousands of sample cases worldwide I’d say it ought to be possible to calculate a pretty reliable average time lapse between initial exposure, and death.  If they then retrospectively start the clock at the various phases of lockdown, I reason they should be able to identify which aspects of lockdown worked best by looking at the changing shape of the deaths curve on corresponding days further down the timeline.

I’ve no doubt the statisticians will already be counting days from when the Europeans started easing, to see what how the death curves react, that exact number of days later.   

Stress for once, above is just my own reasoning, I can’t link to a qualifying source as I have not tried to find one.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #475 on: May 19, 2020, 05:44:06 PM »

Never thought I’d find myself agreeing with SNP politicians but, for once...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-52721717

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Author Neil Gaiman has apologised for making a trip from New Zealand to "self isolate" at his home on Skye.

As far as I can see he doesn’t even seem to have any real connection to Scotland, but maybe that’s going unreported. :(
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Alex Atkin UK

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #476 on: May 19, 2020, 06:58:54 PM »

Never thought I’d find myself agreeing with SNP politicians but, for once...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-52721717

As far as I can see he doesn’t even seem to have any real connection to Scotland, but maybe that’s going unreported. :(

That's so bizarre on so many levels.  Why wouldn't you want to stay with your family, especially as isn't New Zealand statistically one of the safest places to be?
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #477 on: May 21, 2020, 01:51:16 PM »

Seems drugs companies are gearing up for vast quantities of vaccine.  From Astrazeneca, ref deliveries from September.

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/astrazeneca-advances-response-to-global-covid-19-challenge-as-it-receives-first-commitments-for-oxfords-potential-new-vaccine.html

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First agreements to supply at least 400 million doses; Company has total capacity sourced for one billion doses through 2020 and into 2021; continues to increase capacity further

Worth stressing that is for the Oxford developed vaccine which still in trials, and may or may not work.  Still, mildly reassuring, imho.



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jelv

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #478 on: May 21, 2020, 03:41:13 PM »

seeing as it can take 14 days to show symptoms

It appears that is in doubt and of course there are those that never show any symptoms - or the symptoms they exhibit are not those officially recognised by the authorities in this country (but are elsewhere).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08dnym5 is an interesting listen.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #479 on: May 21, 2020, 06:46:36 PM »

In case anybody’s not noticed, I see that face masks are becoming more easily available. 

Not just overpriced and dodgy ones from Amazon but from more respectable pharmacies too, such as Boots and Lloyds.   I invested in a box of 50 from Boots online, arrived in two days.  They look pretty much like what (say) my dentist would normally wear.

Of course, any protective benefit for the wearer from SARS-Cov-2  is marginal to non-existent.  But providing they are used in addition to the 1 metre/2 metre, whatever, social distance rules for the country you are in (the distance does vary), it now seems widely accepted that they provide some protection for others, should the wearer be unknowingly be infected.
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