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Author Topic: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)  (Read 35138 times)

Alex Atkin UK

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #315 on: April 07, 2020, 12:42:03 AM »

Here at least the no bags rule has been suspended. The delivery arrives already bagged and the driver will leave them at your door and retreat. No need to sign for them either.

I was under the impression they all were supposed to have revoked the "no bags" rule as it was implemented on the principle that the driver helps you unpack the crates, which obviously they can't right now.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #316 on: April 07, 2020, 10:46:51 AM »

Anybody else picked up on rumours that Germany has published a document planning easing up of their lockdowns after 19th April?

The story goes it’s not that they think the lockdowns were wrong, rather that they think the lockdowns have worked and now ready to move to the next phase, whilst keeping the reproductive number below 1.     I keep seeing mention of such a plan, but can’t find any concrete evidence. Until I do, I’ll regard it as just a rumour, but here’s the top hit I got from searching...

https://www.france24.com/en/20200406-germany-outlines-plan-for-scaling-back-coronavirus-lockdown

Emphasise again, I regard this for now as nothing more than rumour, not yet a ‘fact’ in my book.
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Alex Atkin UK

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #317 on: April 07, 2020, 06:41:04 PM »

Surely you can't say the lockdown "has worked" until you stop getting new cases and/or have a vaccine?

The second you end the lockdown, cases will just go up again, its only logical.
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Weaver

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #318 on: April 07, 2020, 06:44:26 PM »

Agreed with Alex. Of course 7LM isn’t saying that.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #319 on: April 07, 2020, 07:06:31 PM »


The second you end the lockdown, cases will just go up again, its only logical.

No.   As long as the reproductive number is less than 1, that is when each infected person infects less than one other people, cases must drop.

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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #320 on: April 07, 2020, 07:44:59 PM »

Adding to above, here’s one of the Imperial College reports, looking at how China has got on with relaxing the lockdowns.     It’s a couple of weeks old unfortunately, so maybe out of date.

From my position of scientific ignorance and likely misunderstanding, I think the important fact seems to be that containment must be achieved first, after which partial relaxation of distancing policies may be possible without immediate resumption of disaster...

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Exiting-Social-Distancing-24-03-2020.pdf
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Chrysalis

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #321 on: April 07, 2020, 08:16:56 PM »

No.   As long as the reproductive number is less than 1, that is when each infected person infects less than one other people, cases must drop.
no evidance of that though sadly, i think our r0 is still above 1 and ending a lockdown would just increase r0 as well
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #322 on: April 07, 2020, 08:38:13 PM »

no evidance of that though sadly, i think our r0 is still above 1 and ending a lockdown would just increase r0 as well

I have seen no credible suggestions that we in the UK are anywhere close to being able to relax the lockdowns.

But I was referring to reports (see reply #316) that Germany may believe they are approaching a point where they can keep R below 1, whilst relaxing their own lockdowns.  Not a return to normal, but a relaxation, albeit with other measures such as intensive population tracking.

I’m not the biggest fan of German culture or German politics, but I so have good respect for their scientific competence. 
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Chrysalis

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #323 on: April 07, 2020, 08:52:07 PM »

fingers crossed they right
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Alex Atkin UK

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #324 on: April 07, 2020, 10:04:54 PM »

No.   As long as the reproductive number is less than 1, that is when each infected person infects less than one other people, cases must drop.

Sure, but how do you achieve that WITHOUT lockdown?

The way I see it, our lockdown is already pretty relaxed.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 10:10:49 PM by Alex Atkin UK »
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #325 on: April 07, 2020, 10:17:14 PM »

Sure, but how do you achieve that WITHOUT lockdown?

The way I see it, our lockdown is already pretty relaxed.

I was never referring to our lockdown, I was referring to (multiple and consistent) rumours thar Germany may soon be able to make a move.

There are different degrees of lockdown, and lockdown is not the only weapon in the armory.   Here again is a link to one account of German plans...

https://www.france24.com/en/20200406-germany-outlines-plan-for-scaling-back-coronavirus-lockdown

Quote
The document envisages a staged return to normality, backed by mechanisms that will make it possible to track more than 80% of people with whom an infected person had contact within 24 hours of diagnosis. Infected people and those they had contact with will be quarantined, either at home or in hotels.

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kitz

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #326 on: April 08, 2020, 03:58:04 AM »

I'm not in the "shielding" category but I am over 70 (it was my 75th birthday yesterday) and a whole lot of new slots have just become available at Waitrose.

Belated birthday wishes. :congrats:
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Alex Atkin UK

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #327 on: April 08, 2020, 05:41:08 AM »

I was never referring to our lockdown, I was referring to (multiple and consistent) rumours thar Germany may soon be able to make a move.

There are different degrees of lockdown, and lockdown is not the only weapon in the armory.   Here again is a link to one account of German plans...

https://www.france24.com/en/20200406-germany-outlines-plan-for-scaling-back-coronavirus-lockdown

Interesting, but hasn't it already been suggested that protective masks are useless?

It would also mean restaurants and coffee shops can't re-open, as you'd have to remove your mask.  Plus it doesn't exactly reduce the risks at work, where I can't see people wearing a mask all day, plus what to do when you need to eat or drink there too?
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Chrysalis

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #328 on: April 08, 2020, 05:53:22 AM »

I have come to defeat on trying to get recognition for disabled people not in the list, we are just going to be lumped alongside the fully fit.

I bumped up my asda order to try and prepare for a stint with no food coming in, i have one more asda order next week also, as I managed to pre book them when asda accidently unlocked the slots to everyone for a day (they honouring the orders).

Also I registered on facebook, I hate the site, but its where all the support groups are registered and working (alarming the amount of tracking they doing, they recognised all my family and friends already on there, just from my initial registration of name and email address).  So anyone who might need help with food deliveries, facebook is the place to be.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 05:56:48 AM by Chrysalis »
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roseway

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #329 on: April 08, 2020, 06:49:33 AM »

@kitz: Thank you :)
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