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Author Topic: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)  (Read 20200 times)

sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #645 on: July 25, 2020, 11:14:43 AM »

Considering what we know about the virus, a heart attack months later could very well still be a COVID death, although not sure how run over by a bus could qualify.

Did you read the article?   He used the example of ‘months’ simply because that’s where are are now, but same logic would apply to a heart attack 10 years later, 30 years later, whatever, unless we time-bound the statistical association.  Better still agree a number for that bound and request that all parts of UK adopt the same number.

Seems to me that using the current PHE method, Covid-19 has a guaranteed 100% death rate.  Because anybody who has ever tested positive will appear in the stats when they eventually die, no matter how long they live and no matter what they eventually die of. :-\
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digbey

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #646 on: July 25, 2020, 01:19:04 PM »

Seems to me that using the current PHE method, Covid-19 has a guaranteed 100% death rate.  Because anybody who has ever tested positive will appear in the stats when they eventually die, no matter how long they live and no matter what they eventually die of. :-\

It seems to me that you have fallen into the same trap as the author of that article.

Of the PHE methods, he starts off by saying "it seems that" and that "PHE does not appear to consider". But then continues with what he understands of the PHE method to be fact.

Is there any Government document showing the PHE method?

What the article suggests is that anyone that tested positive for Covid-19 would have their death registered in the month that they were tested even if it is many years in the future. This is nonsense.

"So, the COVID death toll in Britain up to July 2020 will eventually exceed 290k, if the follow-up of every test-positive patient is of long enough duration."
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #647 on: July 25, 2020, 02:04:26 PM »

It sounds like Prof Heneghan has already persuaded Matt Hancock that PHE accounting is flawed, and persuaded the press to reproduce his arguments.

From a week ago...

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-07-18/publication-of-daily-coronavirus-death-figures-put-on-pause-as-matt-hancock-calls-for-review-into-phe-data

Quote
This means anyone who has ever tested positive for Covid-19 and then dies is included in the death figures, even if they have died from something else.
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digbey

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #648 on: July 25, 2020, 02:16:35 PM »

It sounds like Prof Heneghan has already persuaded Matt Hancock that PHE accounting is flawed, and persuaded the press to reproduce his arguments.

Of course he has! The Government will clutch at anything that will make them look better, they are not unbiased.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #649 on: July 25, 2020, 02:45:41 PM »

Of course he has! The Government will clutch at anything that will make them look better, they are not unbiased.

If you prefer the UK Govt to look as bad as possible in every regard then I'm sorry if this ends up detracting from that ambition. 

If it's any consolation, PHE is an Executive Agency of the UK Government, freshly created during David Cameron's time in office.  So, if (note 'if')  PHE have been as clueless as is being suggested then, even though PHE are meant to have some autonomy, the buck stops with govt ministers.  You'd still have plenty to criticise.

I did suggest that in order to keep to the science,  we take Government criticisms out of this thread, and started another thread for that express purpose....

https://forum.kitz.co.uk/index.php/topic,24952.0.html



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digbey

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #650 on: July 25, 2020, 04:37:03 PM »

If you prefer the UK Govt to look as bad as possible in every regard then I'm sorry if this ends up detracting from that ambition. 

I have suggested no such thing, it's product of your fertile imagination. I said the Government would like to look better than the present situation, that does not mean that I would like them to look worse.

I do know who PHE are and I would suggest that they are as competent at statistics as Prof Carl Heneghan and are no doubt keeping their methods under review. The comment about being run over by a bus recorded as a Covid death is ludicrous, I'd bet he has no proof of such nonsense, hardly worthy of a professional researcher.
There is a problem as to when to ascribe death to a particular cause. We do not know what the longer term effects of Covid-19 will be, it could certainly be possible for an outwardly healthy person to die of the effects after 28 day (the cut off date used by some other countries). Unless you have any scientific papers showing that Covid-19 effects only last 28 days after apparent recovery.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #651 on: July 25, 2020, 05:10:41 PM »

I do know who PHE are and I would suggest that they are as competent at statistics as Prof Carl Heneghan

I take it you can cite some your sources, to justify that suggestion?  If based on gut feeling, you clearly have more confidence than I do in government institutions.

Again for reference, here is Heneghan’s CV.

https://www.phc.ox.ac.uk/team/carl-heneghan

it's product of your fertile imagination.

Just for the record I consider that offensive, beyond the scope of normal banter that is acceptable in forum debate.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2020, 05:14:28 PM by sevenlayermuddle »
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burakkucat

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Re: The Coronavirus (COVID-19)
« Reply #652 on: July 25, 2020, 05:48:40 PM »

As a purely temporary measure, this thread has been locked.

It will be discussed at Admin. level before a decision is taken. Please be patient.
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