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Author Topic: Hand Sanitizer  (Read 2372 times)

chenks

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #30 on: March 12, 2020, 04:24:51 PM »

no assumption being made at all, but there is always a risk of re-infection of anything.
the human race has only been able to completely wipe out very few things that like to attack us, but immunity is built up to allow us to deal with them rather than them killing the host off.

lets not forget that at the moment there are two countries that are skewing the stats greatly, China and Italy.
the percentage of people dieing from this is still small, and one wonder if those same people had contracted the usual Flu if they would have survived that or not.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #31 on: March 12, 2020, 04:37:41 PM »

My daughters back from uni tomorrow, she's studying Bio-chemistry, last time I spoke to her she said it won't be a problem, I think things are starting to prove her rather wrong unfortunately.

I also have a family member who studied Biochemistry.  Recently retired, but he rose to being in charge of research at a large government (not uk) scientific department.   We touched base in February, he seemed then to think it was being a smidgen overblown.   Don’t know if he’s changed his mind.  Or at least, if he’s willing to admit he’s changed his mind. ::)
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Ronski

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #32 on: March 12, 2020, 04:59:09 PM »

Be interesting to know what he thinks now, my daughters only in her second year so no real experience although they are bound to have discussed it with tutors etc.
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Ronski

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #33 on: March 12, 2020, 05:01:32 PM »

the percentage of people dieing from this is still small, and one wonder if those same people had contracted the usual Flu if they would have survived that or not.

I'd be willing to bet quite a few probably wouldn't have.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #34 on: March 12, 2020, 05:16:55 PM »

I'd be willing to bet quite a few probably wouldn't have.

I’ve tried doing the maths, assuming a lifespan of 70-80 years, how many average people out of the same sample would have died anyway, of something else, during the time Covid 19 has been in the news?    The unfortunate conclusion I came to is that deaths from Covid 19 massively swamp that statistical expectation.  :(

You could argue that, in the case of Italy or a typical cruise ship, remaining life expectancy is a lot less than 80 years.  Even so, no matter which way I crunched the numbers, Covid 19 looks very very bad.
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Chrysalis

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #35 on: March 12, 2020, 10:03:44 PM »

chenks if every single person all at same time isolated for a month it would be killed dead, as it would have no new hosts to spread to, but of course we would never manage to get everyone to do that
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broadstairs

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #36 on: March 12, 2020, 10:31:38 PM »

chenks if every single person all at same time isolated for a month it would be killed dead, as it would have no new hosts to spread to, but of course we would never manage to get everyone to do that

... and as soon as we all came out the virus would infect us again as soon as someone with it appeared. We need 'herd immunity' until such time as the researchers can develop a vaccine.

Stuart
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #37 on: March 12, 2020, 10:43:16 PM »

chenks if every single person all at same time isolated for a month it would be killed dead, as it would have no new hosts to spread to, but of course we would never manage to get everyone to do that

If every single person isolated for a month...

*Breakdown of infrastructure,  nobody to manage gas and electricity plant, nationwide power blackouts, broken water supplies, no engineers available to repair as all are isolating.
*Loss of internet connectivity, with data centres unstaffed.
*Breakdown of law and order, with no police on the streets.
*Vacuum of information, with no TV broadcasts.
* etc, etc.

...I’d take some convincing that would be conducive to a solution. :)


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Alex Atkin UK

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #38 on: March 12, 2020, 10:48:51 PM »

If every single person isolated for a month...

*Breakdown of infrastructure,  nobody to manage gas and electricity plant, nationwide power blackouts, broken water supplies, no engineers available to repair as all are isolating.
*Loss of internet connectivity, with data centres unstaffed.
*Breakdown of law and order, with no police on the streets.
*Vacuum of information, with no TV broadcasts.
* etc, etc.

...I’d take some convincing that would be conducive to a solution. :)

None of that would matter though, as most of us would have starved to death, assuming the water supply hadn't failed first.
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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #39 on: March 12, 2020, 10:50:30 PM »

None of that would matter though, as most of us would have starved to death, assuming the water supply hadn't failed first.

Arguably only half would starve, the other half having got to look more appetising by the end of the second week.
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Alex Atkin UK

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #40 on: March 12, 2020, 10:58:33 PM »

Arguably only half would starve, the other half having got to look more appetising by the end of the second week.

 :lol: :no: :'(
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Ronski

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #41 on: March 13, 2020, 11:10:21 AM »

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sevenlayermuddle

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #42 on: March 13, 2020, 10:30:51 PM »

This makes very interesting and worrying reading

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

I’m now convinced this guy is just a nutter.  Probably just a harmless nutter by nature, but the internet turns harmless nutters into news, which is dangerous.

More worrying is... what convinced me?   Channel 4 featured him on their ‘news special’.   They introduced him as a ‘silicon valley exec’ and ‘not a scientist’.  Pitched against a genuine scientific advisor he came across as nothing short of a loony.   

Yet, Channel 4 gave him air time. :o
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Chrysalis

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Re: Hand Sanitizer
« Reply #43 on: March 14, 2020, 04:05:43 AM »

... and as soon as we all came out the virus would infect us again as soon as someone with it appeared. We need 'herd immunity' until such time as the researchers can develop a vaccine.

Stuart

A virus thats dead cant spring out of nowhere.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/28/inside-eyam-village-damned-self-isolated-plague/

Herd immunity without a vaccine is flawed.

It requires for everyone to get infected, well if you doing that what's the point of doing it, as we aiming to avoid people getting infected by getting people infected?

You might say well its to save from reoccurrences in future years, the problem is like the common cold you will get re-infected as on a mutation you lose immunity.  The UK is going against the rest of the world on this.

I can think of three reasons for this strategy, neither of them are medical.

1 - To get economy downtime as short as possible.
2 - To cull of the economically inactive.
3 - Psychological, the government has no faith in been able to get the english to stay in their houses for very long at least until a later date where they see the carnage in front of them.

Some estimates.

The WHO has the CFR at 3.4%.  For comparison flu is 0.1%.

60% of 67 million, 40.2 million
3.4% of 40.2million, 1.4 million rounded up.

Thats a lot of deaths

To make it worse those CFR figures are largely down to health services managing the situation, the NHS is barely coping now, once its at capacity the CFR will sky rocket.  Many people critical wont even be attempted to be saved.  65+, economically inactive and probably more.  Then you also have deaths from unrelated illnesses which normally would be survivable that wont be treated due to lack of capacity.

The upper estimate for infection is 80% which makes these figures even worse.

My mother is late 70s and needs breathing assistance nightly to sleep, I fear right now I am not going to see her again alive.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 04:17:47 AM by Chrysalis »
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