Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Alex Atkin UK]

0.1% die from common flue (of those infected), 1% to 2% die from Covid 19, so 10 to 20 times the amount of people, just imagine what would happen if Covid 19 was as common as the common flue, the hospitals would be rammed and wouldn't be able to cope.

On a better note, China which has a population of over a billion seems to be having less cases now, but they are probably more heavy handed at controlling people than the UK.

They don't actually know the true mortality rate yet as you'd need as many people infected as the flu has, which is exactly what is trying to be avoided because its suspected the death rate could be even higher, I've seen 5% thrown around.

Another problem is its far more infectious than the flu, which means you can quickly hit the limit of hospitals to deal with the number of cases with complications, which in turn would increase the death rate dramatically.

Its not necessarily about if people can survive it if treated, its about if we have the resources to do so, which we don't if the infection rate is not controlled.

[kitz]

The Italian figures are pretty grim.

Confirmed   12,462
Deaths         827
Recovered    1,045
Active      10,590

Statistics are wonderful, so simplistically we can say the death rate is 6.6%.

But what is more worrying is that there is a portion of people that will battle the virus for many weeks yet still succumb to CoV-19.   Take for instance the previously healthy Dr Li who died 4 weeks after contracting the virus.  A fair amount of those 10,590 will be seriously ill or in ICU with unknown fate.

The worst case is comparing 827 deaths to 1045 recovered. 

Source JHU Coronavirus research center

[sevenlayermuddle]

The worst case is comparing 827 deaths to 1045 recovered. 

That’s the equation I’ve been focussing on, and I find it scary.  I think the same equation applied to France is even more frightening, last time I looked.

That said, I guess (emphasise ‘guess’ as I’m no expert) it depends upon how high is the bar before a patient is deemed to be medically ‘recovered’, there might be lots of people who have effectively recovered, but just not fully tested yet, so not included in the stats.   And it also excludes the people who’s illness was so minor they were never recorded.   

I naughtily indulged in watching one of my favourite virus pandemic movies the other day, “I am Legend”, with Will Smith.  The whole population of Earth is transformed into Zombie-like ‘dark seekers’, after a medical mistake by a drugs company.    Not sure if watching that movie was a healthy thing to do, but it added a different context to “worst case scenario”.

[Bowdon]

I think more people have had this coronavirus than what is officially being said.

Remember we're only seeing the figures for the people who have been tested.

I'm not sure if I've had it or not. Just had a strange illness in mid-feb. Recovered now though.

[sevenlayermuddle]

@Bowdon, I have had similar thoughts, I also had a bad ‘chesty thing’ in January.  I coughed like there was no tomorrow, every breath hurt, and I was so weak that I had to rest for half an hour after just putting the wheelie bins out.    If we’d still had access to GPs, I’d definitely have sought help. But of course, NHS GPs are no longer accessible, so I soldiered on.

But when you read the accounts of initial patients in China, who actually got to the point they needed emergency help, only to find the the hospitals mobbed by crowds with similar symptoms and A&E departments guarded by doctors in hazmat suits...   no, I don’t really think that’s what anybody here has already had. 

[Chrysalis]

wasnt any for sale online, so I settled for anti bacterial hand wash, I know isnt the same thing but better than nothing.

Bear in mind though whilst washing your hands is useful, avoiding crowds is in many magnitudes more important, so I hope you didnt catch in that queue.

[Ronski]

You simply can't take the numbers of people tested positive and divide by the numbers of deaths to get the mortality rate. There's going to be a lot more infected who's not been tested.

There was a family on our local TV who had symptoms after coming back from skiing in Italy, it took 9 days and the media getting involved to get them tested, they phoned 111 every day. So was this just a glitch or are they at least 9 days behind testing?

Also evey country is going to be different, Italy has the second oldest population, so is likely to be worse, America just don't seem to be doing many tests so Trump thinks they're safe as they have relatively low confirmed cases 

And Alex you certainly don't need as many people as flu infects to know the mortality rate, obviously the more infected the more accurate it will be but most of all you need accurate numbers for those infected in the first place.

PS Must catch up on the latest walking dead season.

[sevenlayermuddle]

Bear in mind though whilst washing your hands is useful, avoiding crowds is in many magnitudes more important, so I hope you didnt catch in that queue.

We spent the weekend away, did a few museums etc and yes, that thought cropped up a few times.

One problem is that we all (me at least) occasionally need to clear our throats with a little deliberate cough, not a sign of any illness.  But I found I was getting very sensitive to any such coughing sounds, and moving away from the source if possible.  I also felt slightly guilty whenever my own throat needed clearing...

One strategy I adopted was to accept that ‘not touching my face’ wouldn’t work.  An itch needs scratched, and sometimes quite urgently.   I compromised by trying to ensure that my left hand was used solely for holding handrails, pressing elevator buttons, opening doors etc, while the right hand was reserved for nose scratching.   No idea if that does any good.

[roseway]

An epidemic is conquered when a large proportion of the population gains immunity. Then the remaining people without immunity are far less likely to be exposed. As we don't have a vaccine for Covid 19 yet, this implies that a large number of people have to become infected. This is undoubtedly what has happened in China, and there must have been a large number of unreported or symptomless cases to explain the big reduction in new cases.

All the hand washing and sanitising, plus avoiding crowds, isn't going to protect us completely, but it will reduce our exposure. I'm no health expert, but it seems to me that lower level exposure means that our immune systems will have a higher chance of dealing with the infection before we get seriously ill. Sadly, a proportion of the population have weakened immune systems or other serious illnesses, and these people need special care.

[Chrysalis]

You simply can't take the numbers of people tested positive and divide by the numbers of deaths to get the mortality rate. There's going to be a lot more infected who's not been tested.

You are right Ronski, I feel there is no 100% accurate way, but I do think the current CFR method is potentially giving us very low numbers compared to the reality, which is in that italy of those diagnosed more have died than recovered, very scary stuff, the doctors there are working in war zone type conditions, they are now having triage access to ICU, and if a doctor who posted on reddit is to be believed, they are denying the 65+ age group already.  The actual mortality rate will be somewhere in between the CFR figure and the deaths/recovery figure.

[sevenlayermuddle]

The death/recovery ratio seems to vary widely.  Even the UK, currently shows 10 deaths vs 18 Recovered.

But globally, ratio of deaths to recoveries seems to work out less bad, at time of writing, 4751/ 68,672.

One statistic I’ve been watching is the Diamond Princess cruise ship.   I suspect everybody probably got tested, so stats not skewed by unreported cases.   There’s also been time enough for some people to have their recovery recorded.   Current numbers seem to be...

Cases 696
Recovered 325
Deaths 7

Source:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Still very scary, but not quite as terrifying as the short term Italian, French, or even UK, ratios of deaths to recoveries.

Edit: correct my inverted equation for global recovery rate!

[Ronski]

This makes very interesting and worrying reading

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[chenks]

there's actually a scientific argument that, unless you are in a risk category (which would be the same for the flu), then isolating yourself away may do more harm than good.
stuff like this starts to drop off when a critical mass build up an immunity to it, and by everyone self isolating away even when they don't have any symptoms (which is what is already happening) then you don't get the chance to reach that critical mass.

normal flu kills off the weak and those already with other health issues - this appears to be the same albeit it appears to be more contagious.

italy is a different matter because they have a serious widespread issue, due to them never being able to pinpoint the initial spreaders.
the UK doesn't have that problem, but it seems to be going down the line of hiding everyone way which may end up doing more damage than good.

[sevenlayermuddle]

This makes very interesting and worrying reading

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Interesting article but if you read the comments, and ignore those that just say “wow, that’s brilliant”, some people pick quite big holes in his hypothesis and also point out the author seems to have no qualifications at all in the fields of medicine or virology.

[Ronski]

Chenks, you're assuming that people are immune once they've had it, if the interweb is to believed that's not the case, you can catch it again https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

7LM, yes I did read some of the comments, article read with a pinch of the old interweb salt, but it does appear to make a lot of sense.

My daughters back from uni tomorrow, she's studying Bio-chemistry, last time I spoke to her she said it won't be a problem, I think things are starting to prove her rather wrong unfortunately.