Indeed, the chance is low. But the probabilities still need to be rescaled, my best guess is, from one event per L bits rescaled up to events per round_up( (1500 +32 ) / 48 ) * (48 + 5) * 8 bits ie per L3 PDU to be a useful scaled value which tells us how many L3 PDUs get corrupted.
For my line 1, For example
L downstream = 805 bits,
L upstream = 170 bits,
so the probability scale factor would be ( round_up( (1500 +32 ) / 48 ) * (48+5) * 8 / L ) ; which is to be multiplied by the probability of corruption of one FEC frame to get the per-L3 PDU corruption probability, assuming the probability is low so first order is good enough, which it is, and then some. This is all assuming that I have understood the modem stats correctly and read the G.992.3 spec section 7 correctly, that is.