Having mulled this over a little bit, and putting some addresses into the DSL checker, I have a theory, for what it's worth. As I said, I'm on a 220m line to cabinet 6, with a top FTTC estimate of 46. My neighbour is on a different cabinet, cabinet 2, which I reckon is about 800m away. His estimate is 40. So, I wonder if the estimate I'm getting for my address is based on the distance from cabinet 2, despite the fact that I'm really connected to cabinet 6.
Incidentally, I found a house just up the road which is connected to cabinet 2, at a minimum distance of 650m from that cabinet, which has an estimate of the full 80mbps, which also seems wrong, so that's some more evidence that the records around here are not quite right.