Am I absolutely sure? No, not 100%.
Am I absolutely certain that I am absolutely sure? No, not 100%.
Is there a possibility? Yes, of course.
So what could be the possibility? Hmm . . . 50% is a nice midway point between "yes" and "no".
What I am trying to emphasise is that it is not a binary situation were the answer is either "true" or "false". It is more like trying to answer the question "How long is a bit of string?"