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Author Topic: Trying to get my BDUK facts right  (Read 7106 times)

AndyPPUK

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Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« on: August 18, 2013, 08:30:21 PM »

For people who didn't read my post on the "introductions" forum, I'm a politician (boo! hiss!) for the Pirate Party UK (hooray?) and I'm trying to learn enough about the issues involved with rolling out broadband and the way it's been handled under BDUK (and other subsidy schemes) to write some articles about it, and maybe make some useful FOI requests.

I'm going to try and keep he politics out of this post, because I'm well aware that I *probably* have the wrong end of the stick about *some* of this stuff so I thought I'd check with you folks before making any dumb 'series of tubes'-type comments.

So, this is what I think I have found out, please dive in and tell me where I've got my facts wrong:

There are (or were) 3 different sets of government targets.

The Government set up BDUK to deliver
1) 2Mbps to 100% of the population, and 30Mbps to 90% of the population, by 2015. This has been dropped in favour of;
2) 2Mbps to 100% of the population, and 30Mbps to 95% of the population, by 2017.
and the EU wants
3) 30Mbps to 100% of the population and over 100Mbps to 50% by 2020.

These goals are arguably not all that useful because they don't specify any measure of upload speed, contention ratios or throttling, and none of them deliver what the majority of experts actually want, which is FTTH.

From a technical point of view, the things that need to be done to achieve the first two targets can roughly be split into 5 parts.
1) Getting '2Mbps for all' is mostly about dealing with long copper/aluminium lines that run from green cabinets to people's houses.
2) 30Mbps to 90% needs a combination of exchange upgrades and;
3) Installing new big green cabinets, generally called DSLAMs, next to the existing small ones called PCPs where exchanges have been upgraded and;
4) Running fibre to those cabinets through existing ducts, some of which my be blocked, and there's also the issue of;
5) Exchange only lines, for which there doesn't seem to be a solution at the moment.

If 2Mbps for all is done with copper not fibre, then some (all?) of that's going to have to be replaced in 3 years with at least FTTC in order to deliver on the 30Mbps for all EU target.

BT has pretty much finished announcing where it will be doing it's commercial FTTC roll-out, and BDUK funding goes to areas where there is no commercial solution. This isn't just as simple as going for the bits BT missed, because Virgin owns cables in some areas, and there are rural schemes (using a variety of technologies )in some places too.

Here's where is all gets a bit opaque, because there's a chinese wall between the public-facing bit of BT and BT's Openreach division (BTOR), who both keep a lot of information needed to know if BDUK are getting value for money secret because it's commercially sensitive, and because the contracts between BT and the 44 councils are confidential (although there seems to be some mechanism by which BDUK compare the deals?).

Random bits of technical knowledge that I've got from various forums that may be right or wrong:

a) DSLAM cabinets used by BT come in 2 sizes, 288 connections (of which sometimes only 144 are installed) and more rarely 96 connections?
b) 'not spots' in areas with upgraded exchanges happen because BT have decided it's not commercially viable to install a DSLAM cabinet in places with too few subscribers?
c) BT won't say exactly what number 'too few subscribers' is, but we might be able to work it out through anecdotal evidence - for example the row in Kensington and Chelsea was over 108 cabinets supplying 24,000 homes and businesses, so we know that 222 lines is economically viable because that's the minimum each cabined could have… assuming BT isn't using social profiling (disclaimer: I'm in a 'not spots', but a much less posh one. For this reason I've looked into not-spots a lot more than other issues, but I would like to understand the other stuff better too)?
d) Even if BT have 'done' an area and put a DSLAM in, it might not be possible to get FTTC there if the DSLAM is full and BT don't think it's viable to put another one next to it?
e) If you're in a 'not-spot', it's impossible to pay BTOR to put a DSLAM in?
f) BT are using a 20% take-up rate to judge viability?
g) The BDUK contracts are secret, but a well argued FOI request ought to be able to reveal them after a bit of a battle, because of the precedent set here: https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/liverpool_direct_bt_contracts#comment-14142
h) The number of lines per exchange is public knowledge, but the number of lines per cabinet is not?

Questions that I therefore think I ought to be asking (but I'd like to know if these really are the right questions)

1) Is 100% 2Mbps going to be possible, given that speed is affected by building's internal wiring?
2) What is the magic number of lines that would makes a not-spot cabinet viable, if the exchange has been done and fibre already goes there?
3) Why is there disparity between per-cabinet costs for different councils? Why do BTOR not quote per metre of cable and per cabinet?
4) Is BDUK's 90% availability really satisfied if the infrastructure can only cope with 20% take-up?
5) Is anything BDUK are funding in to hit the 2017 targets going to need to be ripped out again and replaced to hit the 2020 targets?
6) Why is there a 6-9 month gap between a BDUK contract being signed and work actually starting? This is being put down to planning and agreeing costs between BT and councils, but surely BT must already know the costs to have deemed things not commercially viable, and the Councils must know them to have agreed the price?
7) is BDUK gap-funding or paying for everything? I.e. if something costs £1m, but would only make BT £900,000, are BDUK giving BT £100,000 or £1m to do it?
8 ) Shouldn't BTOR be required to quote for and accept upgrade orders from customers other than BT? This seems like a no-brainer to me, and I'd be interested to know why it wouldn't work…  BDUK will have a list of the costs it was quoted but could't afford, so why not publish them and let not-spot villages have a whip-round, if they want to? This sounds obvious to me, it's not commercially sensitive info as it's not commercially viable work, it will get subsidies down for the next round, and BTOR will get more money because it's not going to be chipping it's portion of the BDUK money.

Sorry for the long post, there's a lot for a newbie to get their heads round when it comes to understanding this stuff!
« Last Edit: August 20, 2013, 04:55:12 PM by AndyPPUK »
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kitz

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2013, 12:44:52 AM »

Hi Andy.

Lot of things to take in there, and I'm really not qualified to answer a lot of them...  and some of them will require a bit more thinking about than Ive got time to type out tonight. Economics is something that we aren't in a position to break down either.

For starters:-

Cost is a HUGE issue especially for outlying properties.  Getting 2Mbps for all IMHO is impossible using copper. Other technologies would have to be used such as WiFI /satellite.  Even then Im not sure if 100% is too ambitious as even basic utilities such as gas are difficult to reach and not cost effective in some areas.

>> because SKY and Virgin have cabled some areas


Only Virgin.  Sky piggyback (and some may say cherry pick) BT technology and bring nothing new to the table technology-wise.

>> BT won't say exactly what number 'too few subscribers' is,

I suppose it depends on number of subscribers and how much it will cost to supply that area.   A 100 users in a small cluster is going to be far more economic to supply than rural farms spread over a much wider radius.  So you cant really blame them for not wanting to commit to a specific figure and each area would have to be costed on its own merit.

Its not just installation costs, but ongoing costs too.    Longer lines notoriously are more difficult to maintain and to be able to get better speeds.  BToR maintenance and faults on these [copper] lines is far more time consuming and takes more manpower than it does for lines that are nearer the exchange/cab.

BDUK may help an area get started, but then you see Digital Region struggling and finally going to the wall because of huge loses :(

Virgin dont seem to be interested much in entering the arena, their predecessors (blueyonder/telewest etc) did all that in the 90's and costed out the areas they thought viable long ago and seem to have stuck with it.  Even then some of these earlier companies struggled and were bought out by Virgin.   In today's markets I guess no one wants to put all at risk for the sake of picking up a few extra users. Im not aware of Virgin doing any major expansion of their network for 12+ years other than perhaps pick up a few pocket areas of new housing estates which can easily be served by joining to a nearby existing network area.

BT do at least seem prepared to offset costs and some of the more profitable areas subsidising the less profitable.  Even so I believe they are taking a risk and I read somewhere that they estimated it would take 11 yrs to get a full return on what they were investing. -   Please dont quote that figure as I cant recall where it came from now, but if you do some digging you may come up with it.

Others may also chip in their own thoughts

------

PS..  forgot to add re the 30Mbps with fibre...  Even today we have newly installed FTTC cabs, where the copper run is just too long to be able to support 30Mbps, so Im not sure how the results will pan out as even more remote areas come onboard.    I think some are waiting and hoping that Vectoring will help, but we dont know yet when this will roll.

« Last Edit: August 19, 2013, 01:03:58 AM by kitz »
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AndyPPUK

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2013, 04:28:45 PM »

Many thanks for that long and detailed reply, there's some really interesting stuff there. I think it might good for me to edit my original post as people reply, so new readers don't cover old issues. I'm aiming to turn this into a public briefing document eventually, designed to get people who don't know much about BDUK up to speed so they can ask the right questions of county councils.

100% being ambitious strikes me as a bit counter-intuitive, as I'm not come across much evidence of BT 'push back' about that part of BDUK. I guess as BDUK is supposed to be technology neutral BT are just going to use whatever technology works our cheapest? As I understand it the target is 100% of telephone customers, which BT already have a statutory duty to provide service to, the thing that is going to change is that the minimum allowable spec will be raised from 'can make intelligible phone calls' to 'can get 2 Mbps broadband'.

Thanks for correcting me about Sky, this goes to show how easy it is for people like me to jump to the wrong conclusions!

"Too few subscribers" is vague, I agree, but I still think this is a vital number to know, and I think it needs to be known and be separated out from cabling costs before value for money and comparisons between the fees BT are charging under the 44 different contracts can be adequately compared. The reason it (and cable costs per meter) are so important is that without them, we're just taking BT's word that certain areas are not commercially viable, when they have a huge financial incentive to lie about that, have already been accused of doing so, and were caught overcharging by £3m for project management costs according to the NAO.

Installation vs ongoing costs is definitely an area that needs more looking in to. I believe there is a 10 year service commitment built into the BDUK deals, but I've not definitively proved that yet (I haven't seen any BDUK contracts yet, just the invitation to tender template, which I got a few hours ago and haven't waded through yet). I guess if BT is factoring in savings in ongoing maintenance costs gained by moving to just fiber as part of 21CN?

Vectoring is something that I'm very vague on, but I'm really keen to know if the things BDUK are investing in for 2017 deliver will have to be ditched just 3 years later to hit the 2020 EU target. Is 17a vs 30a something that I need to look into here?

Edit - the Invitation To Tender template says the suppliers need to provide a “Reference Cost Book”, which appears to be a list of prices broken down as I suggest above. I wonder if BDUK has seen all of these and made sure they have the exactly the same prices in them?
« Last Edit: August 19, 2013, 07:47:37 PM by AndyPPUK »
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ColinS

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2013, 05:22:50 PM »

It seems to me that there is quite a significant difference between
Quote
100% of telephone customers*
and
Quote
100% of the population

A debate on the practicalities must surely start by being clear on what the actual objective is?

*existing, or otherwise?
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AndyPPUK

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2013, 07:43:56 PM »

I think I can clear this one up. From the Invitation to Tender that I've been given (which appears to actually be a general purpose BDUK template, that councils can customise), it's neither customers or population, the term used is actually "premises".

It's a minor issue, but this isn't the same terminology used in the Universal Service Obligation (USO) that guarantees BT will wire you up. The USO uses the phrase "at a fixed location", so if you own a field without a building in it, BT will be obliged to install a phone line if you ask, but not to provide broadband. What you will be able to get is a cutting edge "Functional Internet Access", at a blistering connection speeds of "at least 28.8kbit/s", which is part of the USO.
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ColinS

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2013, 08:35:55 PM »

I'm sorry Andy, I'm no clearer on what the 100% target is :-\; and I don't think it helps that we now appear to have at least 4 different sets of terminology being applied to it. :no:

However, perhaps you can clarify these for me instead:
1) while the USO may guarantee that BT will wire you up if you ask, does it oblige them to do so at a uniform cost irrespective of location or other difficulties involved, and most importantly of all, who pays the final bill for them doing so?
2) if BDUK is
Quote
supposed to be technology neutral
does this prevent broadband being provided by mobile operators, or anyone else, like BB4N for example? If not why does the focus appear to be solely on BT(OR)? Because only it has the USO?
3) are any of the speeds mentioned e.g. 2, 30, or over 100Mb/s, actual speed requirements at the point of delivery (i.e. a guaranteed service level)?  If not, I suspect the target speeds themselves are pretty meaningless.  Ask Bald_Eagle_1, who already has an Infinity 2 40/10* VDLS2 service, which 6 months ago would have met the 30Mb/s target, but today would be a potential candidate for BDUK intervention at only 20Mb/s.

I think the point I am making is that that problem still remains ill-defined in the first place. :( But that's just my opinion.

[EDIT] *Correction.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2013, 10:25:43 PM by ColinS »
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AndyPPUK

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2013, 09:02:07 PM »

I'm pretty sure I can answer some of that, Colin, but not all of it...

1) The USO isn't anything to do with broadband. A full explanation can be found here: http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/consultations/uso/summary/main_web.pdf but the bit you are asking about says "BT and Kingston are required to provide a connection upon reasonable request and at uniform prices, irrespective of geographical location. This requirement is particularly valuable to customers in remote rural areas whom the market might otherwise not serve. Where installation of a new line costs £3400 or less, BT sets a standard charge. Where installation will cost over £3400, BT requires the customer to pay the excess costs (plus its standard connection charge)."

2) In theory, the BDUK money could have gone to anybody. Originally there were at least 6 bidders, I haven't found a list of them anywhere, but I think you'd have a hard time getting to 6 without having at least one being a mobile operator and some others being local start-ups. The thing that stopped them from winning is that you had to bid for complete counties, and be able to deliver by 2015. Everyone except BT and Fujitsu pulled out and/or failed to pass this stage.

3) I agree, it's highly likely the speed targets are ill-defined, but we'd need to see the actual contracts to know if any of the councils picked up on this fact and defined them properly. I have a horrible feeling I'm eventually going to end up FOIA-ing these, and having to wade through thousands of pages of badly scanned PDFs :-/ What I can say is that the template invitation to tender uses the phrase "must be capable of delivering access line speeds of at least 30 Mbps", but doesn't seem to define that properly anywhere.

The issue of areas that did have provision but now don't seems to be missing from every document I've seen, and it's quite worrying that you and I have picked up on it really quickly, but people who have been paid to think about this for years and trusted with a billion pounds of public money have missed it.

Edit: I've just realised something... there's a plural in there, it says "speeds of at least 30 Mbps" not 'speed of at least 30 Mbps'. A really pedantic interpretation of that would be that both speeds (upload and download) would have to at least 30 Mbps. I'm 99% sure that's not what it was supposed to mean, and if true it would throw the whole BDUK project into total disarray as nothing BT has delivered would qualify, but you could make a case that it is technically what it says.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2013, 10:20:58 PM by AndyPPUK »
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ColinS

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2013, 10:48:13 PM »

Andy,

Thank you for taking the trouble to answer my questions. :) I don't want to hog the thread any futher, as I hope I have already tried to make the point that I think the question you are trying to find answers to is not well-defined. 

But just to clarify on point 3, it was about a subsequent deterioration in provision, rather than it's removal, which sadly is threatened now for parts of South Yorkshire. :'( Hence, 'meeting' the target is a moveable feast. :(
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AndyPPUK

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2013, 11:19:28 PM »

Please feel free to keep replying, Colin! the more I get into the this the more I'm learning, and it's really useful to get other opinions on what the 'right questions' are. I have now found some stuff about service levels in the Invitation to tender, to get BDUK cash a supplier must (amongst other things) deliver "Network availability of 99.5%, measured on a monthly basis and in accordance with Good Industry Practice...", and this needs to be in place for a minimum of 7 years (individual councils can choose to specify longer, but not shorter durations). I would hope this is pinned down more tightly in the actual contracts. Deterioration isn't mentioned, but dropping below the 30Mbps threshold as a result of deteriorating service would count as not delivering superfast broadband as I understand it.
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JGO

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2013, 02:25:45 AM »

One factor I haven't seen considered is the virtues of fibre for interference immunity.
The demand for data speed may not need fibre but the indiscriminate use of of radio devices both deliberate and accidental  will cause  increasing problems which often can be eliminated with fibre.
As the present trend is to use WiFi for everything except automatic toilet flushing (but watch this space !) the "Improvement " from BDUK could be short lived !
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Bald_Eagle1

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2013, 07:46:18 AM »

I would hope this is pinned down more tightly in the actual contracts. Deterioration isn't mentioned, but dropping below the 30Mbps threshold as a result of deteriorating service would count as not delivering superfast broadband as I understand it.


I believe 24 Mbps is the superfast threshold i.e. anything above the highest speed achievable via ADSL2+:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/transforming-uk-broadband


So in my case, I did have a 'superfast' connection (very close to 30 Mbps) for around 7 months & now I don't - possibly due to increased crosstalk as more users have been connected (not actually confirmed despite a number of engineer visits).

Indications are that Vectoring MIGHT get me back up to above 24 Mbps again.


However, I am still having to pay 'superfast' prices.

With existing technology/line conditions, I could only ever achieve 1 Mbps when on ADSL (usually less), due to being over 5 km from the exchange.

I am still around 1 km from the street cabinet & with fewer tones available for bitloading at the lower ADSL2+ frequencies, I would no doubt achieve speeds lower than my current 20 Mbps or so if ADSL2+ was delivered to the cabinet via fibre.

« Last Edit: August 20, 2013, 07:48:40 AM by Bald_Eagle1 »
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AndyPPUK

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2013, 01:16:58 PM »

One factor I haven't seen considered is the virtues of fibre for interference immunity.

I can't see anything explicit about this in the documents I have, but there are service level agreements that have to be met. My understanding is that BDUK is technology neutral, but if a technology can't deliver the required level of reliability that would rule it out from receiving BDUK funds. there seem to be claw-back mechanisms for things that work for a bit and then stop working, but those are hidden in the secret contracts.
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AndyPPUK

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2013, 01:29:15 PM »

I would hope this is pinned down more tightly in the actual contracts. Deterioration isn't mentioned, but dropping below the 30Mbps threshold as a result of deteriorating service would count as not delivering superfast broadband as I understand it.


I believe 24 Mbps is the superfast threshold i.e. anything above the highest speed achievable via ADSL2+:-

https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/transforming-uk-broadband


So in my case, I did have a 'superfast' connection (very close to 30 Mbps) for around 7 months & now I don't - possibly due to increased crosstalk as more users have been connected (not actually confirmed despite a number of engineer visits).

Indications are that Vectoring MIGHT get me back up to above 24 Mbps again.


However, I am still having to pay 'superfast' prices.

With existing technology/line conditions, I could only ever achieve 1 Mbps when on ADSL (usually less), due to being over 5 km from the exchange.

I am still around 1 km from the street cabinet & with fewer tones available for bitloading at the lower ADSL2+ frequencies, I would no doubt achieve speeds lower than my current 20 Mbps or so if ADSL2+ was delivered to the cabinet via fibre.

I think I've got to the bottom of this 24 or 30 issue! There are 2 definitions in the Invitation to tender. 24 is the definition of "superfast", but at least 30 is required to qualify for the BDUK NGA funding. Putting this as simply as I can:

If you're getting less than 24, you qualify for BDUK funding to get 30+

If your just under 30Mbps connection was BDUK funded, the council should be able to claw that funding back (or use the thread of doing so to get the provider to fix it). If your area hasn't been 'done' by BDUK, and you can't get 24 Mbps, you should get in touch with your council and get them to mark your house as a 'white area' that qualifies for BDUK funding, because they probably believe you're getting over 24 and don't qualify. This doesn't mean you'll get done, but it does put you in the pot of people that can be done.
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c6em

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2013, 04:46:30 PM »

Item 6 yr list of questions.
In large projects the tender is always done on the basis of educated guesses.
The design work is never fully done - partly because no one knows all the parameters/interfaces between the various companies' parts in the whole - and it depends on which of the other main contractors in the tender process get the order.
My background is not infrastruture but bespoke large capital products - but the principle remains the same.

The contracts are run in a different way to what domestic/retail contracts might be.
There is a huge amount of contact between the parties on a daily basis ironing out difficulties and sorting out design changes and finalising the interfaces en-route - and of course altering the prices up and down and sharing the extras costs/pricing out between the various contractors.
Everyone accepts this is the way the jobs get done and no one has the staff or the time to do the tenders properely.  It works mainly because each company and indeed the staff are known to staff from other companies.

I used to do some of these tenders and it was like when you saw a requirement that was likely to be a problem you just said yes it it will take more people and more time to get a solution - add £30K for luck
The real work costing some real money in people/time/computing power/development labs etc started when the contract was awarded.

In fact we use to run a joke which went like this
Sale dept to me - remember that Friday afternoon guess you did in 15 minutes for tender X
Me - errrrr yes (worried look)
Sale dept - well I've got some real bad news for you
Me - Let me guess:we got the order
Sales - yes you are now going to have to actually build it!
Me - and I suppose you are going to tell me which of the 6 options and 7 sub options within each of the main options they have ordered?
Sales - no idea - doubt they have either.
(Sometimes the sense of panic within the engineering dept was papable when a tender became an order)

Item 8
Several groups of people in villages have indeed paid BTOR to upgrade their cabinet.  It needs some substantial amount of cash to be raised by those on the cabinet.
Binfield Heath (2 cabinets+ complications) and Islip(1 cabinet) being two.
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JGO

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Re: Trying to get my BDUK facts right
« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2013, 07:44:42 AM »

One factor I haven't seen considered is the virtues of fibre for interference immunity.

I can't see anything explicit about this in the documents I have, but there are service level agreements that have to be met. My understanding is that BDUK is technology neutral, but if a technology can't deliver the required level of reliability that would rule it out from receiving BDUK funds. there seem to be claw-back mechanisms for things that work for a bit and then stop working, but those are hidden in the secret contracts.

As a professional engineer I am inclined to doubt it, once capital has been spent !
After 150 years we are stuck with Stevenson's 4' 8.5" rails even though it has long been known that 7' is inherently safer.
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