Well! Looks like your diagnoses of "banding" were spot on.
Plusnet called me today, but I was out walking off my Sunday dinner. Anyway, the connection was up again, and at a reasonable speed, when I got back home.
They sent me a little graph of my connection ups and downs - I can't post that, but here's what was in the message:
"Circuit is currently being tested - results to follow shortly.
The connection is dropping (2 drops in 24 hours, 15 drops in 72 hours)
<redacted name> - BOT - DSL Logged Faults
3:50pm, Sunday 11 Nov 2012
[internal]
WBC 160K - 288K Medium delay (INP 8 ) 6dB Downstream, UC Low delay (INP 0) 6dB Upstream (ADSL2+)
Copper Line Test - Pass
Network Incident Check - Pass
TAM Network Check - not available
<graph was here...>
Ellacoya: Service_Offer_54 OK
WP Connection Profile: Generic Speed 250 increased to 21meg
Upstream DSL Link Information Downstream DSL Link Information
Loop Loss: 26.8 46.5
SNR Margin: 5.8 28.5
Errored Seconds: 0 0
HEC Errors: 0
Cell Count: 251 6
Speed: 1112 232
Maximum Stable Rate (KBPS): Fault Threshold Rate (KBPS):
Mean Time Between Retrains (Seconds): Mean Time Between Errors Upstream (Seconds):
Indicative Line Quality: Mean Time Between Errors Downstream (Seconds):
batch Id is 1-13877610648 Success
changed target to 9 and removed banding"
But of course the connection was dropping! - that was me trying out various line settings, reboots, moving the modem from one socket to another. Seems bonkers that the system treats every intentional disconnection as a reason to slug the speed a little more. Also seems bonkers that a switched-off router is treated as a rotten connection, if that's what happened.
The graph showed completely disconnected for the period I was off on holiday, so it must have definitely powered up afterwards in this 'banded' state. The first disconnection was almost a day later, probably around the time I was first thinking "this internet connection seems a bit slow, perhaps I need to reset the router"...
Thanks very much for the help. It looks as though the ISP can and will reset the "banding" if necessary, which is worth knowing. Pretty good service from Plusnet, assuming it wasn't their algorithms that stuffed the line up in the first place.