It's an interesting question.. what bandwidth might we reasonably expect in the near future?
The Big Thinking is towards a fully packet-switched IP network (21CN). This will see the abandonment of traditional circuit-switched networking for voice calls (the PSTN and the ATM layer).
The buzz word of today is "Triple Play". This means (1) voice telephony through VOIP, (2) streamed video though IPTV, and (3) data - web, email, gaming, and pretty much everything else.
Of those three services, it is IPTV that consistently demands the greatest bandwidth. IPTV is also very sensitive to packet loss and delay.
We can use the transponder bandwidths for Freeview digital terrestrial broadcast TV to guess-timate the bandwidth requirements for IPTV over a copper (or fibre) local loop.
In the UK, high definition terrestrial TV is broadcast in DVB-T2 standard with MPEG4 video compression. The FreeView public service broadcast (PSB) transponders have a bandwidth of 40.2Mbps. This bandwidth is used to broadcast four HD TV channels (BBC1HD, ITV1HD, C4HD, and BBC HD). [1]
For our rough estimate, it requires ~10Mbps bandwidth to broadcast one TV channel in high definition quality.
However, it is commonplace for householders to be watching several TVs at the same time, each channel demanding its own bandwidth of ~10Mbps. Unlike a broadcast scheme like DVB-T, FTTC cannot be used to deliver 100+ of video channels concurrently.
Conjuring up some ballpark figures..
If just three HD video channels are being simultaneously streamed into a household over an IPTV protocol, then the lowest downstream limit for IPTV bandwidth is ~30Mbps for the local loop.
Throw in a smattering of VOIP channels, an online video game or two, some peer-to-peer file sharing, as well as the upstream requirements to service all those channels, and the lowest bandwidth for "Triple Play" to the home is probably 40Mbps.
Without radical upgrade to the local loop infrastructure, Triple Play is never going to happen for many households in Blighty.
FTTC is basically an unsatisfactory Band Aid. FTTC, in its current form, will never provide a 40Mbps service to many homes. The loops to those homes are simply in too poor condition to support it. Triple Play is off-limits for those households.
Fibre-To-the-Premises is the only solution that is guaranteed to provide modern telecommunication services to every household. Since BT is too cash-strapped to fund a FTTP rollout itself, and the City has turned its back, such a project could only come about through major state investment.
In other words, FTTP requires a massive public works programme for technological advancement. A programme akin to Franklin Roosevelt's
New Deal, funded entirely through a system of public credit. [2]
Given the crooked "lugheads" we have in power today, and their subservience to the City of London, and their contempt for the General Public, such a programme seems very remote.
"Those lugheads..would do well to study the amazing achievements of Roosevelt in the dark days of the Depression... FDR’s program included bankruptcy reorganization, banking regulation, farm and housing foreclosure protection, and massive job creation. In the first several months of his administration, the President..put 2 million Americans back to work in short-term construction and infrastructure jobs. The President also employed a further million unemployed, as long-term [Public Works] programs began their development. Later, Roosevelt created the Civil Works Administration. It unleashed a mammoth, but again, short-term public works program, that put over 4 million unemployed to work in four months.
CWA spent $1 billion, and its workforce built or improved over 500,000 miles of roads, and built or repaired 40,000 schools and 3,700 playgrounds. It restored all the city parks in New York; CWA laid 12 million feet of sewer pipe, and built 250,000 privies, while starting or upgrading 1,000 airports across the country—all in four months!
Compared to Roosevelt's achievements, a FTTP rollout is child's play!
Key manifesto pledge of the ASBO Party: Vote for us and we promise to bring fibre to every home by 2015!
cheers, a
[1]
http://www.ukfree.tv/fullstory.php?storyid=1107051920[2]
http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/public/2011/eirv38n37-20110923/42-46_3837.pdf