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Author Topic: AA congestion report  (Read 1234 times)

boozy

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Re: AA congestion report
« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2018, 06:25:04 PM »

I think they must be using aggregated data for the figures rather than the raw data, and so this can happen https://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/28/theorums_3_simpson/ although I can't see how :D.  The first one is the one that's really wrong as you can't have a lower "average" number over 24 hours when the congestion only affects part of the group (the Non-Premium).

Code: [Select]
24 hour un-errored seconds Non-premium Premium 24 hour - non premium
99.62% 99.69% 100.00%
seconds 602501.76 602925.12 604800 423.36
99.74% 99.73% 100.00%
seconds 1206455.04 1206334.08 1209600 -120.96
99.68% 99.64% 100.00%
seconds 2411458.56 2410490.88 2419200 -967.68

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Weaver

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Re: AA congestion report
« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2018, 11:34:03 PM »

Boozy - you are a star. Perhaps some of the numbers are in the wrong columns, transposed?
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j0hn

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Re: AA congestion report
« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2018, 01:52:49 AM »

It makes perfect sense to me.

You need to explain what doesn't make sense to you?

There isn't and shouldn't be a perfectly logical pattern  between the 24 hour un-errored seconds tab and the non-premium tab. They are measuring 2 different things.

A single 100 second sample (more than 0.1% of the day) on the non-premium tab could be made up of 5 errored seconds or 100 errored seconds.

So the % on the unerrored seconds tab can be higher or lower than the % on the non-premium tab.

Or am I misunderstanding your confusion? I'm confused at your confusion  :lol:
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Chrysalis

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Re: AA congestion report
« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2018, 05:58:28 AM »

Yeah I can understand it, I dont understand the confusion.
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boozy

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Re: AA congestion report
« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2018, 12:18:04 PM »

I'll try and do this using ice creams, so as not to cause confusion about definitions  ;D

you have X people and not enough ice creams to go round, then the chance of getting an ice cream <100% (call it z%). 
If you take a bunch of the "premium" people and give them all an ice cream, for the remainder the chance of getting an ice cream is now worse (call it y%).  y<z.

i.e. when you remove a portion of the people from a ratio calculated using them (and say they were not affected by the rationing) the ratio can only change in one direction.  In the table the change goes in both directions.

The assumption is that the same thing is being measured across the whole table.

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Weaver

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Re: AA congestion report
« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2018, 12:26:27 PM »

It is the both directions thing that I cannot understand.

I am assuming that one thing is a subset and the other thing is the entire set, then n(subset) > n(whole set) is impossible.

If there were no premium errored sec events then how can that be added to the non-premium count to produce a total that is higher? as shown in one row at the top
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 12:28:51 PM by Weaver »
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j0hn

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Re: AA congestion report
« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2018, 12:36:28 PM »

I meant, what exactly are the figures you have a problem with.

if it's the 24 hour un-errored seconds and Non-premium tabs (I think that's what you's mean?) then it's entirely possible for 1 to be higher or lower than the other.
They are measuring 2 completely different things.
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anything