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Author Topic: Scary  (Read 8408 times)

Weaver

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Scary
« on: May 24, 2016, 05:43:30 PM »

Please think carefully about what can be done
    http://www.revk.uk/2016/05/the-20cn-dilemma.html

It would be a good idea to also voice any helpful ideas directly on RevK's blog at the above address.
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burakkucat

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Re: Scary
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2016, 06:15:06 PM »

 :hmm:  Unfortunately I don't have any sensible suggestions, at this moment. It clearly needs some thought . . .  :-\
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renluop

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Re: Scary
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2016, 06:48:26 PM »

If it's costing A&A so much, is that because of its small size, or are other ISPs likewise suffering but more able to absorb within overall costs, especially BT family? Would not that seem to be a hidden elsemt of cross subsidy?
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aesmith

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Re: Scary
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2016, 08:38:07 PM »

Looks like that's us goosed, we're on 20CN and there's no plan to upgrade the exchange.  All the money and effort is going on FTTC, which won't reach anyone outside the village.  So looks like the options are going to be find an ISP who will continue to provide, or go satellite at the "subsidised" rates offered through the local authority.

Edit - Post Office still offering,  Zen already ruled out because their prices go through the roof on 20CN.   Another question arises, can an ISP terminate within the initial contract term?   I seem to remember other ISPs sending out price rises in-contract, giving the users the option of leaving without penalty.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2016, 08:46:37 PM by aesmith »
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Weaver

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Re: Scary
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2016, 09:49:28 PM »

Isn't this what regulators are for? The monopolist runs riot.
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kitz

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Re: Scary
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2016, 11:27:58 PM »

Ummm..  could this not in part have something to do with OFCOM's Broadband Access Market Classification? The remaining 20CN exchanges are usually Market 1.

Quote
Market 1 : [20CN] adsl is provisioned by BT Wholesale only. Their prices are fixed by OFCOM and no cheaper alternative LLU is available.

Its why some ISPs such as Plusnet charge more for Market 1 exchanges, because there are 2 price bandings A&B.  Its also why the likes of Sky and TT now aren't interested in taking on any customers who are on Market 1 exchanges.  Not only do they deem them not profitable to put in their own kit, but not even profitable enough to take on any customers from them at all.

Its OFCOM that set these rules on pricing.  The idea was to encourage LLU providers to go into exchanges and be able to charge less than BT, by forcing BTw to charge a higher rate.  Instead what has happened (as anyone with half a clue could guess that LLU would cherry pick)  is actually to the detriment to customers on those exchanges because OFCOM are forcing BT to set a higher rate... and the LLU's wont go in because there's no profit in the smaller exchanges.


As I said at the time when OFCOM first brought out the regulation.

Quote
Many people will think the above unfair, but those are the rules as defined by the regulatory bodies, which has now resulted in a 'two-tier' broadband in the UK where pricing may likely vary depending upon your location.
I'm sure its OFCOM who decides which exchanges pay Market A and Market B prices.

If AAISP say they are making a loss on those exchanges, then they may have to charge more.  :(

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ETA

Its going to be much harder for the smaller ISP's such as AAISP who will have to maintain a 20CN pipe regardless of the number of users.
If the SP is large enough to have a few thousand users sharing that pipe, then costs to the SP will be cheaper.   If AAISP only has a hundred or so still on 20CN, then costs will be exceedingly high.   
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kitz

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Re: Scary
« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2016, 01:05:32 AM »

Just out of interest I was trying to check the costs for a 20CN central v a 21CN host link, but I couldn't find the costs for hosts links and I need to get to bed.

He should be using IPsC for the 20CN and the annual rental cost for a 622Mbps central pipe is £1,028,920.00..  which is actually cheaper than  £1,496,760 for an old 622Mbps Central that he will previously had to pay for many years. 

The problem will be that BTw do aim to upgrade all exchanges to 21CN, but after the latest batch of 21CN conversions he probably hasnt got sufficient EU's still on 20CN to make it economically viable.  The plan is to eventually retire all of them - from last year "20C retirement now in place on 2,762 exchanges with migrations continuing"

If he does want to retain 20CN, it may be cheaper to white label from the likes of say Enta or Murphx who have sufficient EU's to make a pipe more cost effective.
   
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Chrysalis

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Re: Scary
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2016, 07:14:50 AM »

BT's backhaul prices are absolutely insane, even on 21CN they significantly higher than typical transit costs.

BT have got away with it because of the lack of wholesale backhaul competition offering the same thing.

All those years when adsl max was "the thing" and uk isp's commonly traffic shaped etc. blaming heavy users when it was the excessive backhaul costs been the real reason.

RevK might get somewhere contacting ofcom, if they really on the side of the consumer they would step in and put a cap on the costs from BT, the reality is tho they probably dont care and nothing would be done, sadly I think AAISP only have 2 options.

Either eat up the losses, or abandon the 20CN product, if they try the no profit route, masses will leave at the 3x price increase and that will then cause a domino affect of it going up for others which then will trigger more leaving and so on.

kitz I suspect with a few hundred users he has one of the much more expensive smaller pipes, he hasnt got enough left to have a 622mbps pipe. Assuming avg sync speed of 6mbit/sec and 300 users and assuming every user is maxing out their line at peak that would be 1800mbit.  the reality is tho that actual capacity required will be much lower. I expect in the region of 300mbit at the absolute most.  He does give enough figures to roughly calculate what capacity they paying for now tho, so at £138 per mbit, 300 users, £60 per line, lets say £45 per line taking away port and line costs that would be approx 300kbit per line of capacity. 300x300kbit = 90000kbit of capacity approx? Way below a 622mbps central.

Weaver are you on 20CN?
« Last Edit: May 25, 2016, 07:32:18 AM by Chrysalis »
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Weaver

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Re: Scary
« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2016, 08:57:02 AM »

@Chrysalis - no, I'm now on 21CN since Xmas.

I can't believe what a lucky escape I've had. I would have gone mad if I were still one of the unfortunate victims of this horrific situation. I really need my multiple line bonding, and I use IPv6 all the time, for self-educational purposes.

(I suppose I would have switched entirely over to AA's 3G data SIM service, which I'm already using on one of those our iPads, but that would mean having to use NAT, losing IPv6 (because for some reason AA hasn't managed to set it up directly over the Three 3G service. But the traffic charges might be scary.)
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Weaver

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Re: Scary
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2016, 09:06:49 AM »

The fact that I've escaped should be no excuse for complacency. I should write to my MP / MSP, although I'm not sure what force it can have seeing as I'm not one of those affected. If AA only give people one month's notice then that's not much time to get a political initiative going.

Ofcom needs a bomb putting under it. This is a clear case of them being asleep at the wheel. How could this have been allowed to happen? Unfortunately there time is very limited. An order to BT to level their prices, a non-geographic, USO-style ruling, that's what's needed yesterday. And if AA can see that relief is on the way, and guaranteed, then perhaps they will feel able to stay the axe.

ISPs are not mere commodities when they are like AA with their thinking, personal, non-corporate-robotic service. They are not simply interchangeable just like swapping electricity provider, although that's how a lot of people see it, sometimes rightly, sometimes wrongly, and it's _all_ the politicians know.

Who can I write to?
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Chrysalis

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Re: Scary
« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2016, 09:24:00 AM »

Ofcom have been focused on helping LLU providers, they say they there to help consumers but any benefit has been indirectly due to the occasional benefits LLU providers can bring, their rare intervention on things like opting out of contracts is usually only in response to strong public pressure so their hand gets forced.  As you said any political or ofcom action would need several months at least to do something so it would likely be too late for AAISP customers.  I also believe none of the big isp's have dumped 20CN users and that is probably all ofcom will be bothered about.  The big isp's likely are able to sustain 20CN customers due to sheer numbers allowing the costs to be swamped up.
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jelv

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Re: Scary
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2016, 09:38:10 AM »

It will only take one of the big ISPs to dump 20CN users and the others will refuse to take new 20CN users because of the effect a large number of them coming in would have on their bottom line. In all likelihood it would leave BT Retail as the only 20CN provider - it would be too embarrassing for them to say they were dumping 20CN as the lines from BT Wholesale are too expensive!
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jelv

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Weaver

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Re: Scary
« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2016, 09:52:24 AM »

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Weaver

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Re: Scary
« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2016, 09:58:00 AM »

Apologies for my ignorance - "IPsC" ?
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